If you are a teacher who hosts CTO in their classroom every year, then you may have noticed that the number we report for the prevalence of fentanyl in street pills is always changing. Over the past few years the US’ Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has reported statistics ranging from 4 out of 10 pills to 7 out of 10 pills for the prevalence of deadly amounts of fentanyl. The most recent statistic, however, drops even lower, with the DEA’s latest publication stating 3 out of 10 pills now contain a lethal amount of fentanyl.
But what does this change mean? Are our students more than twice as protected as they were when the statistic was 7 out of 10 pills last year? The short answer is no, it’s not that simple.
First, it’s important to understand where these numbers come from. The DEA tests pills that are seized in law enforcement operations, which means the statistics reflect what is being confiscated in a given time period, not every pill circulating in every community. When the percentage changes, it does not necessarily mean fentanyl has become “safer” or less common everywhere. It often means the supply has shifted, enforcement patterns have shifted, or the sample tested has changed.
And although it may sound obvious to those of us who advocate for a living, it’s important not to forget that even when the percentage drops, the risk remains extraordinarily high. For a teenager making a single impulsive decision, those odds are life-altering. A lower percentage does not equal low risk.
So what does this mean for educators?
It means our messaging should stay consistent, even as the numbers change. Rather than focusing only on a specific percentage, students need the full picture of what substance misuse can look like, which is what CTO does best! What matters most is helping students understand the unpredictability of today’s drug supply and empowering them to make informed, cautious decisions.
Statistics will continue to shift as agencies like the DEA publish new findings, but students will always benefit most from an honest, comprehensive conversation about opioids.
